报告题目： Periodic phenomena and driving mechanisms in transmission of West Nile virus with maturation time 

报告人：朱怀平 教授 (York Univesity, Canada)

时间：5月10日（星期五）下午2：30--3：30

地点：第五教学楼5205教室

摘要：  West Nile virus (WNv) transmission shows both seasonal pattern in every single year and cyclic pattern over years. In this talk I will present a compartmental model with bird demographics and maturation time of mosquitoes during metamorphosis to study the impact of ambient temperature on the transmission and recurrence of disease. We find that  that large maturation delay will lead to the extinction of  mosquitoes and the disease; small maturation delay will stabilize the epidemic level of the disease; and intermediate maturation delay will cause sustainable oscillations of mosquito population,  recurrence of diseases, and even mixed-mode oscillation of diseases with an alternation between oscillations of distinct large and small amplitudes. With

bifurcation theory, I will show that temperature can drive the oscillation of mosquito population, which leads to recurrence of WNv through the incidence interaction between mosquitoes and hosts, while the biting and transmission process itself will not generate sustained oscillations. I will then summarize and explain the  driving mechanisms of periodic phenomena in the transmission of WNv and other mosquito-borne diseases.

欢迎广大师生参加！